DBRaven

Simulation Tools

Interactive what-if models. Enter your system's real parameters (RPS, pool size, growth rate, producer throughput) and run deterministic simulations calibrated to your numbers. Same parameters always produce identical output. No AI, no randomness.

To read predefined operational failure models instead of running your own, see the simulation model library.

Workload Simulation

Workload

Model your backend under four workload archetypes: read-heavy cache pressure, write amplification under indexing, burst traffic connection saturation, and analytics query contention with OLTP.

M/M/1 queuing · Cache eviction · WAL throughput · Little's Law

P95 / P99 latencyCache hit rateConnection utilizationReplication lag

Cost Projection

Cost

Project infrastructure costs over 3–36 months using compound monthly growth rates for compute, storage, network, and managed services. Includes optional engineering overhead.

cost(t) = base × (1 + rate)^t · Compound growth · Cumulative spend

Monthly spend by categoryCumulative total2× and 3× threshold events

Scaling Simulation

Scaling

Simulate DAU growth → RPS → connection pool saturation → latency inflection over months. Supports single DB, read replicas, sharding, and serverless architecture tiers.

RPS = DAU × actions / 86400 · N = λW (Little's Law) · M/M/1 latency inflation

DAU and RPS trajectoryConnection utilizationP95 latencyStorage growth

Queue / Stream Dynamics

Queue

Model producer/consumer throughput imbalance over a 10-minute window. Includes consumer health degradation under backlog pressure and autoscaling with configurable delay.

backlog(t) = max(0, backlog + net_rate × dt) · health(backlog) → 0.6 under stress

Backlog depthData delay (staleness)Consumer countConsumer health

Composite Simulation

Composite

Chain two simulation engines together with deterministic transfer functions. Output signals from the first engine (connection utilization, WAL throughput, queue data delay) feed as parameter overrides into the second. Models causal cross-domain interactions no single engine can capture.

signal(engine₁) → transfer_fn → override(engine₂) · Workload → Scaling · Queue → Cost

Per-engine seriesCross-engine eventsCausal narrativeCombined risk level

Stress Analysis

Stress

Derive node stress states, risk path activations, and deterministic mutation suggestions from simulation output. Maps metric peaks to architectural stress types (pool saturation, cache eviction, queue backlog, replication lag) and generates structured remediation paths. Optionally overlay onto architecture graphs.

series peaks → stress rules → StressState · StressType → MutationSuggestion

Stress states by typeMutation suggestionsGraph node overlaysHot propagation edges

Comparative Simulation

Comparison

Run the same base parameters against 2–6 architecture variants simultaneously. Compare P95 latency, connection utilization, cost trajectories, or queue backlog across single_db vs read_replicas vs sharded, or any other parameterized dimension. Deterministic metric rankings and time-series overlays.

base_params + overrides(v₁…vₙ) → engine(vᵢ) → rank(metrics) · spread = |best − worst| / max(best, 1)

Metric rankings with spread %Per-variant stress analysisTime-series overlayRisk-based ranking

Infrastructure Collapse

Failure

Model cascading failure propagation across interconnected components over a 20-step (600s) window. Captures retry storm amplification, thundering herd recovery spikes, and per-depth cascade attenuation. Quantifies how quickly an initial failure fraction saturates the entire system and how long recovery takes.

failure(t) = initial_rate · cascade_factor^depth · (1/(depth·0.5+1)) · retry_excess = failing_frac · (retry_mult−1) · 100

System health %Cascade depthRetry storm loadRecovery progress

Temporal Evolution

Long-term

Project how RPS, technical debt, team capacity, infrastructure cost, and migration pressure compound over 1–5 years. Captures debt accumulation under load, remediation diminishing returns at high debt, and the composite migration urgency index that signals when an architectural transition becomes unavoidable.

rps(t) = initial_rps · (1+monthly_growth)^t · debt(t) = debt(t−1) + acc − rem · migration_pressure = 0.40·rps + 0.30·debt + 0.20·cost + 0.10·team_strain

RPS trajectoryTechnical debt indexTeam capacity indexMonthly costMigration pressure

Organizational Simulation

Org

Track how team maturity, on-call burden, feature velocity, and migration readiness evolve over 6–24 months. Models burnout threshold at 40h/engineer/month (maturity growth stalls), diminishing-returns training curves, and the composite readiness score required to safely execute a major architectural migration.

maturity(t) = min(100, maturity(t−1) + training·(1−maturity/100)·2) · readiness = maturity·velocity·incident_headroom·complexity_penalty·200

Team maturity scoreOn-call burden h/engineerFeature velocity %Migration readiness %Operational debt

Governance Propagation

Governance

Simulate how compliance violations accumulate, propagate, and respond to remediation over 6–36 months. Tracks compliance score decay driven by violation discovery rate vs. remediation capacity, audit risk spikes at scheduled audit windows, and composite governance pressure combining compliance deficit, audit risk, and backlog.

compliance(t) = compliance(t−1) − severity·new_violations/100 + severity·remediated/100 · audit_risk = base·(1.5 if audit_month) · pressure = 0.50·deficit + 0.30·audit + 0.20·backlog

Compliance score /100Audit risk scoreRemediation backlogGovernance pressure index

Migration Simulation

Migration

Model the 4-phase migration lifecycle (Preparation → Execution → Validation → Cutover) over 4–52 weeks. Phase durations vary by migration type (monolith→microservices, postgres→sharding, sync→eventual). Captures dual-write overhead peaks, risk escalation at cutover, parallelism benefits, and rollback capability penalties.

exec_duration = total_weeks·exec_frac·(1−parallel·0.4) · risk(t) = base_risk·phase_multiplier · dual_write peaks at (20+complexity·8)% during execution

Migration progress %Risk level %Dual-write overhead %Validation coverage %

Note: All simulation output is model output only, not a production forecast. Values are derived from deterministic closed-form formulas applied to your input parameters.

Actual system behavior depends on hardware, network topology, query patterns, and dozens of other variables not captured here. Do not use for capacity planning decisions without professional validation.